Term+Project+-+Chapter+4+-+Data+Analysis+(Revised)

=CHAPTER 4 DATA ANALYSIS=

__Analysis of Stock Flow Diagram and Causal Loop Diagram__
In chapter 3, the group discussed the causal loop and the stock flow diagrams. It has been noted that there are 5 feedback loops, 2 of which are positive and 3 of which are negative. The 2 positive feedback loops greatly reinforce the rate at which OFWs will return, and this is very much undesirable as they are our source of remittances. On the other hand the negative feedback loops, greatly bring down the supply of OFWs abroad. This presents a situation wherein the source of remittances that our economy so greatly relies on may be deminished.

In the following sections, DYNAMO was used to simulate the effects over time.

__Assumptions of The System__

 * Average remittances of each OFW is Php 17,593.29
 * Out of the total OFW population 2.55% leave their children behind
 * The number of applicants grow each year by 5%
 * The average rate of returning OFWs is 8% of the total number abroad
 * The average length each OFW stays abroad is 2 years
 * Initial values for the DYNAMO syntax of supply of OFWs is 900,000
 * Foreign Labor Opportunities grow by 10% each year

__DYNAMO Syntax__
NOTE OFWLVL is in Millions L OFWLVL.K=OFWLVL.J+DT*(APPOFW.JK-RETOFW.JK) N OFWLVL=900000 R APPOFW.KL=DELAY1((GRATE*1.1*OFWLVL.K),0.1) R RETOFW.KL=DELAY1(((OFWLVL.K*(100/OFWDMD.K))+SOCCST.K+(RRATE*OFWLVL.K)),0.3) C GRATE=1.05 C RRATE=0.08 NOTE OFWDMD is % Demand for OFWs L OFWDMD.K=OFWDMD.J+DT*(NWFRJB-FFFRJB.J) N OFWDMD=100 C NWFRJB=0.1 A FFFRJB.K=(1800000/(OFWLVL.K+RETOFW.KL)) A REMIT.K=17593*OFWLVL.K A BROKFAM.K=0.02*OFWLVL.K A CHILDLF.K=0.02*OFWLVL.K A SOCCST.K=BROKFAM.K+CHILDLF.K

SPEC DT=0.1/SAVPER=0.1/LENGTH=20 NOTE Time is in Years SAVE OFWLVL,OFWDMD,RETOFW,APPOFW,FFFRJB,REMIT

__DYNAMO Graphs__




Figure 4.1 & 4.2 shows the results of the OFW Levels and their corresponding Remittances over time. It can be seen that over time, there will be a significant decrease in the number of OFWs abroad which can lead to unwanted consequences such as the reduced inflow of remittances. Figure 4.3 shows the results of Application and Return Rates for OFWs. From the figure, we can see that at around the 5th year there is a shift and that the return rate of OFWs becomes greater than the application rate. This shows the reduction in the number of OFWs from abroad.

__Conclusion & Recommendation__
From the observing the graphs, there is a clear problem that social costs may greatly affect the mindset of OFWs and prompt them to return. Like the solution to the "Limits to Growth" archetype the Philippine Government must find a way to reduce the social costs incurred by each worker or on the other hand find other countries. It must be the policy of the government to try and keep the OFWs sending their remittances as long and as much as possible.